A Modest Prediction

I predict that five years from now, American opinion on abortion and Roe v. Wade will have moved in a strongly pro-life direction, as evidenced by reputable polls.

I am not basing this prediction on a grand ethical revolution, as much as I would like to see that happen. Nor am I basing it on an increase in personal experiences with life-saving laws, although that may be a factor. I’m no psychic, either. (Psychics aren’t a thing.)

No, the reasons for my prediction are simple: (1) people like to be on the winning team, and, just as important, (2) most people don’t like to think about abortion any more than they absolutely have to.

The abortion industry has benefited from these psychological realities for the past 48 years, as many Americans have considered “pro-choice” to be the default position. But once Roe is overturned, Dobbs will become the new default and the dynamics will flip in favor of life. I predict that this will more than outweigh the pro-abortion “backlash” that the Democratic Party is hoping will buoy it in the midterm elections.

In fact, I think this is already happening in response to the mere anticipation of Roe‘s reversal. For instance, in a recent poll, 56% of respondents opposed overturning Roe; that’s a 4-point drop from just last month, and an even more significant drop from past years, when nearly two-thirds of Americans said they wanted to keep Roe. We also see it in major liberal outlets like the New York Times and the Washington Post publishing pro-life op-eds. They haven’t actually become pro-life yet, of course; they are hedging their bets. But I’ll take it for now.

Check back on this article in five years to see if I’m right.